From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.
Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.
Barely 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.
