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At first, the former US president seemed to take a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing statements of "severe ramifications" in August in case Russia's president carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, Trump finally imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially impacted Putin's capability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that same autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business experience, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, as if handing Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not only about dominating a damaged swath of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in place the presently divided oblasts of these areas, the plan would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been failed to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear path to the capital in case he eventually opt to resume the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no similar restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Any Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." As if to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "decisive joint military response" should Russia renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics vary from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on the nation's land, thereby precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

World Reaction

Another parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet different from a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not